Forecast above the clouds

There are many amazing phenomena in the equatorial stratosphere. One feature is the phenomena of planetary scale and long cycle. For example, the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a phenomenon that the easterly and westerly winds descend alternately despite observation at any longitude on the equator with a mysterious period of 28 months on average. Recent studies said that if you could accurately predict the QBO, the prediction of MJO and mid-latitude weather could be improved.

JAMSTEC has researchers challenging the experimental seasonal forecast of the equatorial stratosphere using a global climate model in sync with YMC. Figure shows the prediction results of the east-west winds over the Bengkulu observation site during the YMC Sumatra Campaign 2017 period, calculated by a model called JAGUAR (Japanese Atmospheric General circulation model for Upper Atmosphere Research; Watanabe and Miyahara 2009). In addition to the QBO winds, passages of equatorial waves are also predicted. The modeling teams are going to visit the Bengkulu Meteorological Observatory during the time surrounded by the dotted line and look forward to looking up those exciting phenomena while supporting observation researchers. See you there!